21k underwritten profit on a flip sucks, and I'm going to do it anyway

Underwriting a flip in 85308 (I love this zip code)

I’m about to go buy this house, and I have no idea how much money I’ll make on it. This happens from time to time - there are a handful of variables that exist on a linear scale, and depending on which sliders are up and which are down, I could make anywhere between 7k and 67k on this one house. My best guess is that I’ll make 21k. I try to make 30k or 10% returns and I think that after I go see the house I may be able to adjust my budget to fit.

It’s not the best deal I’ve seen all week - but it’s the best one I've seen today. Let’s dive in.

Summary of Returns

• Address: 18819 N 47th Ave, Glendale AZ 85308

• Purchase price: $275,000

• Rehab budget: $55,000–$75,000

• ARV (resale): $385,000–$425,000

• Estimated win: $8,000–$65,000

• Timeline: 7 months (90 days to complete rehab, 90 active to contract, 30 to close)

Context

I sourced this house from one of my local friendly neighborhood wholesalers, the kind that spends hundreds of thousands of dollars a month across a couple states to pay for leads and find homes that people want to sell for less than market value, ostensibly because the home is in terrible shape and can’t sell on-market, as is. This house is exactly that - the owners passed away and the individuals who inherited it let it sit vacant. Now the roof and HVAC are shot, the other systems (electrical, plumbing) need some love, and the entire thing looks like it was renovated in 1975 and has been baking in 110 degree heat ever since. (I was told this story, and did not verify. SUPER second hand storyline, re-tell it at your own risk).

85308 - Why I love this area

Median sales price in this zip code is $485,000 and goes as high as $1.5M+. This is a nice spread - there’s upside, and money being spent in this zip. I like to be north of Bell road - the upside is growing, and demand stays consistent. These homes were largely built in the 80’s and 90’s, and the neighborhoods have held up well with owners remodeling their own homes over time. This is the perfect convergence - buyers like the area, these buyers have money, and the older inventory set yields flip opportunities.

Next Steps

I have a series of questions I need to answer in order to better inform my modeling. The first is condition - I have a range, and need to see it in order to button it up and get more specific. So I’m going out driving tomorrow. I was told by the wholesaler that “there are 4 or 5 people interested in this one” because it’s in a great area, and “don’t be mad if it sells quickly”.

I always check to see if I can keep it as a rental. As has been the trend in all of 2026, I can’t. This one is upside down, even with the baked in 18% discount when I’m all said and done.

Here’s my assumed budget so far. The institutional jargon here is ‘Pro Forma’ - modeled outcome based on underwriting assumptions.

ARV Sale Comps

4831 W TOPEKA Drive, Glendale, AZ 85308 - 400k, 1264 sf

19208 N 47TH Lane, Glendale, AZ 85308 - 407k, 1331 sf

4405 W TARO Drive, Glendale, AZ 85308 - 410k, 1136 sf

Current Photos

This Roof, fascia, trim, etc. needs work.

You can see the general condition of the house and yard - the fence is actually in decent shape, but the windows are old, the roof and awning supports are old, and it all needs a refresher

The kitchen, the most expensive part of the house. It all needs to go.

Check out that water heater! This entire wall is in questionable shape. Looks like an outside shed / room, possibly that garage you see in the front of the house.

I’m a little nervous about the stucco, and what all this damage says about the house. That said - I don’t hate it, and think there is enough here to work with architecturally to make it shine.